由于CAPE比率高达35.7,S&P 500指数基金在未来十年可能表现不佳。 S&P 500 index funds may underperform in the next decade due to high CAPE ratio of 35.7.

由于市场估值高,S&P 500指数基金在未来十年可能表现不佳。 The S&P 500 index funds may not perform well in the coming decade due to high market valuation. Michael Finke教授的分析表明,Shiller周期性调整价格与收益比率(CAPE)可以解释未来十年S & P 500回报率的90%。 Professor Michael Finke's analysis shows that the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) can explain 90% of the S&P 500's returns for the next decade. 目前的CAPE比率为35.7,是1929年以来最高的,表明未来十年的年均回报率估计为3%。 The current CAPE ratio of 35.7 is the highest since 1929, indicating estimated annualized returns of 3% over the next decade. 这低于2008年以来10.9%的年化回报率和3.89%的10年期国库券无风险收益率。 This is below the 10.9% annualized return since 2008 and 3.89% risk-free yield of 10-year Treasury notes.