全球贸易增长可能在2026年减缓至1.9%,原因是中东紧张局势,高能源价格和AI需求的下降,这将危及GDP和粮食安全. Global trade growth may slow to 1.9% in 2026 due to Middle East tensions, high energy prices, and fading AI demand, risking GDP and food security.

根据WTO的预测,由于中东冲突持续存在,霍尔木兹海峡出现混乱以及人工智能相关需求和关税驱动进口减弱势力,全球贸易增长将从2025年的4.6%放缓至2026年的1.9%. Global trade growth is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, according to the WTO, due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the fading momentum of AI-related demand and tariff-driven imports. 如果能源价格保持高位, 增长可能会降至1.4%, 使全球GDP和粮食安全面临风险. If energy prices remain high, growth could drop to 1.4%, risking global GDP and food security. 贸易组织警告持续的贸易路线转移和更高的成本, 但注意到高科技和数字服务中的性. The WTO warns of lasting trade route shifts and higher costs, but notes resilience in high-tech and digital services. 迅速缓和,持续投资人工智能可以在2026年将增长率提高到2.4%. A swift de-escalation and sustained AI investment could boost growth to 2.4% in 2026.