由于石油价格上,中国可能在2026年初结束通货紧缩,但因需求和定价能力疲软而导致的通胀只会略有增加. China may end deflation in early 2026 due to higher oil prices, but inflation will rise only slightly due to weak demand and pricing power.

2026年初,中国可能会退出长期通缩阶段,因为全球油价上 - 伊朗冲突推动的 - 将生产者价格推向正值区,受进口通胀的影响. China may be exiting a prolonged deflation phase in early 2026 as rising global oil prices—spurred by conflict in Iran—push producer prices toward positive territory, driven by imported inflation. 虽然10%的石油价格升可能会使生产者价格上0.4个百分点,但国内需求疲软,企业利率薄弱和定价能力有限意味着消费者通胀预计只会略有增长,达到约0.1~0.2个百 分点. While a 10% oil surge could lift producer prices by 0.4 percentage points, weak domestic demand, thin corporate margins, and limited pricing power mean consumer inflation is expected to rise only slightly, to around 0.1–0.2 percentage points. 由于中国约四分之一的工厂亏损,薪资增长疲软以及青年失业率为16%,企业可能会吸收更高成本而不是提高价格. With about a quarter of Chinese factories operating at a loss, weak wage growth, and youth unemployment at 16%, firms are likely to absorb higher costs rather than raise prices. 尽管石油储备战略性,能源结构多样化,但全球消费放缓的外部需求风险可能会破坏中国4.5%~5%的增长目标,特别是如果国内投资和支出仍受到限制. Despite strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix, external demand risks from global consumption slowdowns could undermine China’s 4.5%–5% growth target, especially if domestic investment and spending remain constrained.