惠誉预测2026年全球增长率为2.6%,与2025年相比略有下降,原因是石油价格暂时上涨。 Fitch predicts global growth of 2.6% in 2026, down slightly from 2025, due to a temporary oil price spike.

惠誉评级预测2026年全球经济增长率为2.6%,假设油价暂时上涨,比2025年略有下降。 Fitch Ratings forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2026, slightly down from 2025, assuming a temporary oil price spike. 强的人工智能投资,美国和中国的财政赤字以及美国股市的上升支持了弹性. Strong AI investment, U.S. and Chinese fiscal deficits, and rising U.S. equity markets have supported resilience. 美国国内生产总值预计为2.2%,与2025年相比没有变化,尽管劳动力市场疲软。 U.S. GDP is projected at 2.2%, unchanged from 2025, despite labor market weakness. 预计欧元区将增长1.3%,而由于消费支出和出口疲软,中国的增长预计为4.3%。 The eurozone is expected to grow at 1.3%, and China’s growth is forecast at 4.3% due to weaker consumer spending and exports. 假设霍尔木兹海峡短暂关闭,惠誉将2026年的石油价格预测提高到每桶70美元,但长期猛涨至100美元可以将全球GDP减少0.4个百分点,并将主要经济体的通货膨胀率提高1.2至1.5个百分点。 Fitch raised its 2026 oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, assuming a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, but a prolonged spike to $100 could reduce global GDP by 0.4 percentage points and raise inflation by 1.2–1.5 points in major economies.