2026年太平洋可能形成厄尔尼诺现象,可能带来热浪、季风变弱和粮食无保障的风险。 El Niño likely to form in Pacific 2026, risking heatwaves, weaker monsoon, and food insecurity.

全球气象机构预测,2026年5月至8月之间,太平洋的厄尔尼诺现象发展的可能性日益增大,到夏末将达到60-80%。 Global weather agencies predict a growing likelihood of El Niño developing in the Pacific between May and August 2026, with chances rising to 60–80% by late summer. 这一事件可能会削弱印度的季风,增加热浪,并威胁到农业、粮食安全和通货膨胀,尽管印度洋的两极正数可能部分抵消这些影响。 The event could weaken India’s monsoon, increase heatwaves, and threaten agriculture, food security, and inflation, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partially offset these impacts. 科学家对潜在的极端天气发出警告,并强调需要改进预报和早期政策行动。 Scientists warn of potential extreme weather and stress the need for improved forecasting and early policy action.