卢拉和弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在2026年3月的民调中打成平手，巴西10月大选可能进入决选。 Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tie in a March 2026 poll, with a runoff likely in Brazil’s October election.

2026年3月7日, Datafolha民调显示前总统卢拉达席尔瓦(Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)与参议员博尔索纳罗(Flavio Bolsonaro)在调查的两点误差范围内, A March 7, 2026, Datafolha poll shows former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 46% and 43% in a potential runoff, within the survey’s two-point margin of error. 卢拉在所有首轮情景中均领先，包括以45%对42%领先圣保罗州长塔尔西西奥·德弗雷塔斯。 Lula leads in all first-round scenarios, including a 45% to 42% edge over São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas. 两位候选人都面临高拒绝率-卢拉为46%,弗拉维奥为45%。 Both candidates face high rejection rates—46% for Lula, 45% for Flavio. 大选定于10月4日举行, 如果没有候选人赢得多数票, 则于10月25日进行第二轮选举。 The general election is set for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate wins a majority. 这项调查于3月4日至6日在137个市政当局进行，共2004名选民，反映了弗拉维奥在其父亲雅伊尔·博索纳罗在狱中支持后势头的增长。 The survey, conducted March 4–6 across 137 municipalities with 2,004 voters, reflects growing momentum for Flavio after his father, Jair Bolsonaro, endorsed him while incarcerated.