伊朗的不稳定可能增加海峡过境点,但英国的政策变化使难民的结果复杂化。 Iran's instability may increase Channel crossings, but UK policy changes complicate refugee outcomes.

专家表示，目前还为时过早，无法确定包括美国、以色列和伊朗在内的中东冲突将如何影响英吉利海峡的过河行动。 Experts say it’s too early to determine how the Middle East conflict, including U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strikes, will affect Channel crossings. 伊朗是2024年寻求庇护者中第三大常见国籍,约有26 000名伊朗人抵达,占所有过境点的17%,批准率很高。 Iran was the third most common nationality among asylum seekers in 2024, with about 26,000 Iranians arriving—17% of all crossings—and a high approval rate. 虽然伊朗的动乱可能促使更多人逃离,但不稳定也可能产生混合影响。 While unrest in Iran could drive more to flee, instability may also have mixed effects. 多数伊朗人并不去英国, 但约有114,000名伊朗出生的人住在那里。 Most Iranians don’t go to the UK, but around 114,000 Iranian-born people live there. 联合王国现正每30个月审查一次难民地位,要求来自安全国家的人返回。 The UK is now reviewing refugee status every 30 months, requiring those from safe countries to return. 2026年,超过2 200名移民跨过海峡,包括最近在法国格雷夫林斯企图穿越。 Over 2,200 migrants have crossed the Channel in 2026, including recent attempts in Gravelines, France.