但经济学家警告AI的影响将是缓慢而通货膨胀的。 Trump and allies push for rate cuts citing AI-driven growth, but economists warn AI’s impact will be slow and inflationary.

总统特朗普、财政部长斯科特·贝森(Scott Bessent)和美联储提名人凯文·瓦尔什(Kevin Warsh)认为AI可以复制由互联网时代生产率增长驱动的1990年代经济繁荣, President Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh believe AI can replicate the 1990s economic boom driven by internet-era productivity gains, arguing that a Greenspan-like Fed chair would cut rates aggressively. 然而,经济学家仍然持怀疑态度,指出过去生产率的激增最初被低估,其驱动因素是实际采用技术,而不仅仅是政策。 However, economists remain skeptical, noting that past productivity surges were initially undercounted and driven by real technological adoption, not policy alone. 目前2025年的收益更有可能是由于大流行时代的自动化,而不是AI,专家们警告AI的影响将是逐步的,成本和学习曲线都很高。 Current 2025 gains are more likely due to pandemic-era automation than AI, and experts warn AI’s impact will be gradual, with high costs and learning curves. 他们警告说,过早地削减利率会助长通货膨胀,而不会带来持续增长。 有些人,如美联储总督迈克尔·巴尔(Michael Barr)一样,建议AI甚至可能因为投资和工资压力而提高利率。 They caution that premature rate cuts could fuel inflation without delivering sustained growth, and some, like Fed Governor Michael Barr, suggest AI may even push rates higher due to investment and wage pressures.