预测市场对美国领导的伊朗政权迅速变革表示怀疑, Prediction markets doubt rapid U.S.-led regime change in Iran, with low odds on Khamenei's removal or a nuclear deal by late March.

预测市场对最近罢工后美国领导的伊朗政权迅速更迭持怀疑态度。 垄断市场预测,到3月31日推翻最高领袖哈梅内伊的可能性将达到28%,而Kalshi预测到4月1日将达到63%。 Prediction markets are skeptical of a quick U.S.-led regime change in Iran following recent strikes, with Polymarket predicting a 28% chance of removing Supreme Leader Khamenei by March 31 and Kalshi projecting a 63% chance by April 1. 尽管最初的几率增加,但市场对迅速成功几乎没有信心,到3月31日,美伊核交易的可能性只有23%。 Despite initial increases in odds, markets show little confidence in quick success, with only a 23% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31. 超过4000万美元以地缘政治结果为赌注, 如政权更迭及未来潜在目标, 93%的赌注是哈梅内伊的除名。 More than $40 million was wagered on geopolitical outcomes, such as regime change and potential next targets, with 93% betting on Khamenei's removal. 对内幕交易的担忧是在一些账户据称在罢工前获得大量利润之后出现的,尽管平台否认这类活动。 Concerns about insider trading arose after a few accounts allegedly profited significantly prior to the strikes, though platforms denied such activity.