伊朗的实力在哈梅内伊的缺席下仍保持稳定, Iran’s power remains stable under Khamenei’s absence due to a loyalist network spanning key institutions.

伊朗政治制度依然稳定, 尽管最高领袖哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)长期公开缺席, Iran’s political system remains stable despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s prolonged public absence, according to a report by United Against Nuclear Iran. 报告将这种复原力归因于Bayt-e Rahbari,这是1989年建立的一个涵盖伊朗军事、政府和经济部门的庞大网络,拥有4 000多名核心工作人员和40 000名附属人员。 The report attributes this resilience to the Bayt-e Rahbari, a vast network established in 1989 that spans Iran’s military, government, and economic sectors, with over 4,000 core staff and 40,000 affiliated personnel. 该机构确保哈梅内伊通过效忠者在关键职位上,包括伊斯兰革命卫队和情报机构,发挥影响力。 This institution ensures Khamenei’s influence through loyalists in key positions, including the IRGC and intelligence agencies. 虽然最近领导层发生了一些变化,例如阿里·拉里贾尼的任命,但没有证据表明权力发生了根本性的转变。 While recent leadership changes, such as Ali Larijani’s appointment, have occurred, there is no evidence of a fundamental shift in power. 报告的结论是,伊朗的制度化忠诚制度确保了连续性,即使在哈梅内伊死亡或丧失行为能力的情况下也是如此。 The report concludes that Iran’s institutionalized loyalty system ensures continuity, even in the event of Khamenei’s death or incapacitation.