如果通货膨胀下降,美联储可能会在2026年降低利率,但Goolsbee警告说,尽管大赦国际持乐观态度,但不要过早采取行动。 The Fed may cut rates in 2026 if inflation falls, but Goolsbee warns against premature action despite AI optimism.

芝加哥美联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比说,如果通货膨胀显示在实现2%目标方面取得明显进展,美联储可能会考虑在2026年晚些时候降低利率,但警告说,根据对未来AI驱动的生产率增长的预期,不要过早采取行动。 Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates later in 2026 if inflation shows clear progress toward the 2% target, but warned against acting too soon based on expectations of future AI-driven productivity gains. 他注意到通货膨胀仍然比目标高出大约一个百分点,但最近几乎没有改善,并警告说,强劲的需求——特别是在数据中心建设中的需求——使劳动力市场受到压力,并促使价格上涨。 He noted inflation remains about one percentage point above target with little recent improvement, and cautioned that strong demand—especially in data center construction—is straining labor markets and pushing prices higher. Goolsbee强调,削减利率应当基于具体的消减通货膨胀证据,而不是投机行为,并预计到2026年年中通货膨胀将下降,最高法院的一项裁决可能使许多关税无效,从而对此有所帮助。 Goolsbee emphasized that rate cuts should be based on concrete disinflation evidence, not speculation, and expects inflation to decline by mid-2026, possibly aided by a Supreme Court decision invalidating many tariffs. 预计美联储3月份的利率将保持稳定,市场预计至少到7月才会削减。 The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in March, with markets not anticipating cuts until at least July.