Kalshi的预测市场准确地预测了美联储利率在追踪通货膨胀方面的变化和表现超过传统模式,根据美联储的一项研究。 Kalshi’s prediction markets accurately forecast Fed rate moves and outperform traditional models in inflation tracking, according to a Federal Reserve study.

美联储的一项研究发现,Kalshi的预测市场在预测通货膨胀和美联储利率决定方面优于传统方法,在会议前的汇率变动方面准确无误,通货膨胀预测优于Bloomberg的共识。 A Federal Reserve study finds Kalshi’s prediction markets outperform traditional methods in forecasting inflation and Federal Reserve rate decisions, with perfect accuracy on rate moves before meetings and better inflation predictions than Bloomberg consensus. 平台的实时、高频概率估计提供了连续的洞察力,不常见的点预报无法与之相比。 The platform’s real-time, high-frequency probability estimates offer continuous insights unmatched by infrequent point forecasts. 尽管赌博管制和内幕交易仍然令人关切,但美联储认为预测市场是对经济分析和决策常规工具的宝贵补充。 While concerns remain over gambling regulation and insider trading, the Fed sees prediction markets as a valuable supplement to conventional tools for economic analysis and policymaking.