英国的失业率到2026年将上升到5.4%,因为劳动成本和AI的提高,但到2028-2029年可能会有所缓解。 UK unemployment to rise to 5.4% by 2026 due to higher labor costs and AI, but may ease by 2028–2029.

英国的失业率预计将在2026年上升到5.4%,这是自2015年以来的最高水平,其驱动力是提高最低工资和增加雇主社会保障缴款,使初级工人的雇用成本去年提高了10.6%。 Britain’s unemployment rate is projected to rise to 5.4% in 2026, the highest since 2015, driven by higher minimum wages and increased employer social security contributions that raised hiring costs for entry-level workers by 10.6% last year. 工人最低工资较大行业的失业率越来越大, 人工智能的应用可能会减少对入门级职位的需求, Industries with large minimum wage workforces are seeing sharper job losses, and AI adoption may be reducing demand for entry-level roles, particularly in IT. 尽管劳动力不断增长,如果经济避免衰退,预计到2028年或2029年失业率将降至5%左右。 Despite a growing labor force, unemployment is expected to ease to around 5% by 2028 or 2029 if the economy avoids recession. NIESR将其增长预测升级到2026年的1.4%和2027年的1.3%,并预测今年英格兰银行两次削减利率,将基准利率降至3.25%。 NIESR upgraded its growth forecast to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, and predicts two Bank of England rate cuts this year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.25%.