全球贸易在2026年增长2%,因美国进口转移和关税而放缓,同时面临地缘政治紧张和AI驱动的增长。 Global trade grew 2% in 2026, slowed by U.S. import shifts and tariffs, amid geopolitical tensions and AI-driven growth.

全球贸易增长率从2025年的3.8%降至2026年的约2%,原因是美国在前载后进口回扣以及持续的关税不确定性,特别是第232节下的不确定性。 Global trade growth slowed to an estimated 2% in 2026, down from 3.8% in 2025, due to U.S. import pullbacks after front-loading and ongoing tariff uncertainty, particularly under Section 232. 地缘政治紧张局势和供应链多元化努力持续重塑资金流，近岸外包和回流在美国和欧洲的数量增加。 Geopolitical tensions and supply chain diversification efforts continue to reshape flows, with increased nearshoring and reshoring to the U.S. and Europe. 对关键矿物的竞争正在推动努力减少对中国的依赖,而涉及欧盟、印度、联合王国和新兴市场的新贸易协定旨在抵消保护主义。 Competition for critical minerals is driving efforts to reduce reliance on China, while new trade agreements involving the EU, India, the UK, and emerging markets aim to offset protectionism. 人工智能正在成为关键的增长驱动力,促进了与人工智能相关的货物和数字服务的贸易,尽管如果投资下降,风险依然存在。 Artificial intelligence is emerging as a key growth driver, boosting trade in AI-related goods and digital services, though risks remain if investment declines.