印度经济在2025年增长了7.6%,但如果增长放缓,贸易交易的拖延可能导致进一步减速。 India’s economy grew 7.6% in 2025, but trade deal delays may lead to further rate cuts if growth slows.

高盛警告说,印度-美国贸易协议长期拖延可能会促使印度储备银行在增长减弱时进一步削减利率。 Prolonged delays in the India-U.S. trade deal could prompt the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates further if growth weakens, Goldman Sachs warns. 虽然印度经济在减税、有利作物和国家转移等消费支持的驱动下,在2025年保持7.6%实际国内生产总值增长的弹性,但复苏是不均衡的—— 富裕的消费者在放缓,中等收入群体面临就业和与AI相关的压力。 While India’s economy remains resilient with 7.6% real GDP growth in 2025, driven by consumption support from tax cuts, favorable crops, and state transfers, recovery is uneven—affluent consumers are slowing, and middle-income groups face job and AI-related pressures. 由于低通货膨胀率,名义国内生产总值增长减慢到六年的最低水平。 Nominal GDP growth slowed to a six-year low due to low inflation. 预计贸易协议将在第1季度(27年)之前完成,但超过这一期限的拖延可能会触发额外的货币或财政措施以维持势头。 The trade deal’s finalization by Q1 FY27 is expected, but delays beyond that could trigger additional monetary or fiscal measures to sustain momentum.