Goldman Sachs将预期的美联储削减利率延迟至2026年6月和9月, Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cuts to June and September 2026 due to resilient labor market and inflation trends.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)修订了预测,现在预期2026年6月和9月美联储将比以前预期的更晚地两次削减25个基点的利率,其中引用了低于预期的就业数据,但具有弹性的劳动力市场指标,如失业率下降和工资强劲增长。 Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, now expecting two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in June and September 2026, later than previously anticipated, citing weaker-than-expected jobs data but resilient labor market indicators like a falling unemployment rate and strong wage growth. 其他主要银行,包括JP摩根银行、Barclays银行和摩根斯坦利银行,也推迟了削减预测,JP摩根甚至预测在Q3 2027可能提高利率。 Other major banks, including JPMorgan, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley, also delayed cut predictions, with JPMorgan even forecasting a potential rate hike in Q3 2027. 这一转变反映出人们越来越相信通货膨胀正在走向目标,劳动力市场保持稳定,从而缓解了对削减利率的近期压力。 The shift reflects growing confidence that inflation is trending toward target and the labor market remains stable, reducing near-term pressure for rate cuts. 现在市场看到美联储在1月将利率稳定在95%的概率, 衰退的几率下降到20%。 Markets now see a 95% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in January, with recession odds lowered to 20%.