中国生产上限将铝价提升至4 000美元, China's production cap drives aluminum prices toward $4,000 as demand from green tech surges.

预计2026年铝价格将上涨,因为中国的4 500万吨生产上限限制了供应,而电动汽车、可再生能源和基础设施项目的需求则激增。 Aluminium prices are expected to rise in 2026 due to China’s 45-million-tonne production cap limiting supply, while demand surges from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure projects. 尽管印度尼西亚有一些新的冶炼能力和回收铝的增长,但欧洲的供应限制和几内亚的原材料瓶颈不大可能缓解。 Despite some new smelting capacity in Indonesia and recycled aluminium growth, supply constraints from Europe and raw material bottlenecks in Guinea are unlikely to ease. LME价格在一月初达到每吨3,065美元，如果趋势持续，预计最高可达4,000美元。 LME prices reached $3,065 per tonne in early January, with forecasts reaching up to $4,000 if trends continue. 在铝在去碳化和轻量级的作用驱动下,强劲的需求基本面支持长期价格的坚挺,尽管预计近期价格会波动。 Strong demand fundamentals, driven by aluminium’s role in decarbonization and lightweighting, support long-term price strength, though near-term volatility is expected.