中国的EV需求在2026年初可能会下降30%,因为刺激措施已经过期,购买激增现象有所减少。 China’s EV demand may drop 30% in early 2026 due to expired incentives and reduced buying surges.

预计2026年初中国的锂电池需求将急剧下降,由于税收刺激措施的结束和受补贴驱动的年终购买激增,国内EV销售量预计将从2025年底的水平下降至少30%。 China’s lithium battery demand is projected to drop sharply in early 2026, with domestic EV sales expected to fall at least 30% from late 2025 levels due to the end of tax incentives and subsidy-driven year-end buying surges. 商业EV需求也可能显著下降。 Commercial EV demand may also decline significantly. 虽然对欧盟的出口在2025年增长了4%,但运往美国的货物却下降了9.5%,因为AI增长带来的美国能源储存需求不断增长并没有推动中国的出口,部分原因是美国对外国实体的限制。 While exports to the EU rose 4% in 2025, shipments to the U.S. fell 9.5%, as rising U.S. energy storage demand from AI growth isn’t boosting Chinese exports, partly due to U.S. restrictions on foreign entities. 诸如CATL和EVE Energy等电池制造者可能面临挑战,促使行业发出警告,要求缩减生产规模。 Battery makers like CATL and EVE Energy may face challenges, prompting industry warnings to scale back production.