日本工厂的情绪达到四年来的最高点, Japanese factory sentiment hits four-year high, boosting rate hike expectations.

日本大制造商的商业情绪在12月达到了四年的最高点,日本银行的油轮调查显示头条指数为+15,比9月的+14略有上升,并符合预期。 Japan’s business sentiment among large manufacturers hit a four-year high in December, with the Bank of Japan’s tankan survey showing a headline index of +15, up slightly from +14 in September and in line with expectations. 这标志着连续第三个季度的改善,这是由于美国贸易不确定性减少,高科技部门的强需求以及成本传递的改善,尽管劳动力短缺和消费者需求疲软. This marks the third consecutive quarter of improvement, driven by reduced U.S. trade uncertainty, strong demand in high-tech sectors, and better cost pass-through, despite ongoing labor shortages and weakening consumer demand. 公司计划在2026年3月终了的财政年度资本支出增加12.6%,略高于预测。 Companies plan a 12.6% rise in capital spending for the fiscal year ending March 2026, slightly above forecasts. 随着三年多来通货膨胀超过目标,市场广泛期望日本银行在即将于12月举行的会议上将利率从0.5%提高至0.75%。 Inflation expectations remain stable at 2.4%, and with inflation above target for over three years, markets widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% in its upcoming December meeting.