由于产量创纪录,全球奶制品价格在2025年底下跌,但新西兰农民在对中国的出口不断增长的情况下仍保持盈利。 Global dairy prices fell in late 2025 due to record production, but New Zealand farmers stayed profitable amid rising exports to China.

由于新西兰、美国、欧盟、英国和南美洲等主要出口国的产量创纪录,全球奶制品价格在2025年底下跌,年同比产量上升2.2%。 Global dairy prices dropped in late 2025 due to record production in major exporting nations, including New Zealand, the U.S., EU, UK, and South America, with output rising 2.2% year-on-year. 自10月以来,黄油、全奶粉和奶酪价格下降了7%至9%,而脱脂奶粉则保持稳定。 Butter, whole milk powder, and cheese prices fell 7% to 9% since October, while skim milk powder held steady. 尽管价格较低,但新西兰奶农仍然有利可图,加上预测的每公斤9.50美元的农场出产牛奶价格和免税资本分配。 Despite lower prices, New Zealand dairy farmers remain profitable, supported by a forecast farmgate milk price of $9.50/kgMS and a tax-free capital distribution. 对中国的出口量增长了17%,使总出口收入增加了23%。 Export volumes to China rose 17%, boosting total export receipts by 23%. Rabobank预计由于供应充足和需求疲软,价格疲软将持续到2026年年中至晚期,尽管预计2026年供应增长将放缓至0.12%,有可能使价格到年底稳定下来。 Rabobank expects weak prices to persist into mid-to-late 2026 due to ample supply and weak demand, though supply growth is projected to slow to 0.12% in 2026, potentially allowing prices to stabilize by year-end.