Morgan Stanley现在预测2025年12月美联储削减利率, Morgan Stanley now predicts a December 2025 Fed rate cut, citing weaker data and dovish signals.

摩根斯坦利(Morgan Stanley)扭转了先前的预测, 现在预测2025年12月美联储将削减25个基点的利率, 引用较软的经济数据和美联储官员的评论。 Morgan Stanley has reversed its earlier forecast, now predicting a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, citing softer economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials. 该公司承认自己“之过急”，目前预计将在一月和四月进行两次额外削减，将终端利率降至3.0%-3.25%。 The firm acknowledged it had "jumped the gun" and now expects two additional cuts in January and April, lowering the terminal rate to 3.0%-3.25%. 这与J.P.Morgan和BofA全球研究公司的订正预测相一致,而市场将87.2%的概率分配给12月的削减。 This aligns with revised forecasts from J.P.Morgan and BofA Global Research, while markets assign an 87.2% probability to a December cut.