印度的卢比创下历史新低,但由于粮食进口依赖度低和国内农业强劲,通胀保持稳定。 India’s rupee hit a record low, but inflation remains stable due to low food import reliance and strong domestic agriculture.

根据巴罗达银行的报告，印度卢比于2025年12月4日暴跌至创纪录的90.19兑美元，不太可能显著推高CPI通胀。 The Indian rupee’s plunge to a record low of 90.19 against the dollar on December 4, 2025, is unlikely to significantly boost CPI inflation, according to a Bank of Baroda report. 报告将这种弹性归因于印度对粮食进口的依赖程度低和国内农业产出强劲,粮食约占消费物价指数篮子的46%。 The report attributes this resilience to India’s low dependence on food imports and strong domestic agricultural output, with food making up about 46% of the CPI basket. 虽然5%的卢比下降会使通货膨胀上升15至25个基点,但由于关键作物几乎自给自足,预计影响将有限。 While a 5% rupee drop could raise inflation by 15–25 basis points, the impact is expected to be limited due to near self-sufficiency in key crops. 主要通货膨胀压力很可能来自黄金、食用油和豆类等进口商品。 Main inflationary pressures are likely to stem from imported goods like gold, edible oils, and pulses. 卢比下跌与强劲的进口需求、外国投资减少、贸易赤字扩大以及美国贸易政策的不确定性有关。 The rupee’s fall is linked to strong import demand, reduced foreign investment, a widening trade deficit, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. 尽管有这些因素,消费篮子结构和对粮食进口依赖程度低仍被视为防止通货膨胀不受货币驱动的大幅上升的影响。 Despite these factors, the consumption basket structure and low food import reliance are seen as shielding inflation from major currency-driven increases.