全球石油需求到2040年达到113M桶,2025年9月的库存为8.48B桶,到2026年,液化石油供应猛增。 Global oil demand to hit 113M bpd by 2040, inventories at 8.48B barrels in Sept 2025, LNG supply to surge in 2026.

高盛公司预测,全球石油需求到2040年将达到每天1.13亿桶,这是由航空、化学品和高峰后道路燃料需求的持续需求驱动的,到2040年,年增长率将减慢到每天10万桶。 Goldman Sachs forecasts global oil demand to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2040, driven by persistent needs in aviation, chemicals, and post-peak road fuel demand, with annual growth slowing to 0.1 million barrels per day by 2040. 到2025年9月,石油库存增加到848亿桶,这得益于经合组织和非经合组织库存的增加,包括中国的SPR扩张。 Oil inventories rose to 8.48 billion barrels by September 2025, led by increases in OECD and non-OECD stocks, including China’s SPR expansion. 与此同时,全球液化石油供应预计将在2026年猛增,达到4.75亿公吨,主要来自美国产出增长,有可能将亚洲的现货价格降至每毫米Btu10美元,尽管中国和欧洲的需求可能会减弱。 Meanwhile, global LNG supply is expected to surge in 2026, reaching 475 million metric tons, mainly from U.S. output growth, potentially pushing Asian spot prices down to $10/mmBtu, though demand from China and Europe may temper declines.