一项新的美联储研究发现,关税通过减少需求而降低短期通货膨胀,但增加失业和缓慢增长。 Tariffs lower inflation short-term by reducing demand, but increase unemployment and slow growth, a new Fed study finds.

一项新的联邦储备研究发现,关税可以在短期内降低通货膨胀,因为关税会起到需求冲击的作用,降低经济活动和就业,这与它们提高价格的预期相反。 A new Federal Reserve study finds that tariffs can reduce inflation in the short term by acting as a demand shock, lowering economic activity and employment, contrary to the expectation that they raise prices. 研究人员分析了150年的数据,发现较高的关税与降低通货膨胀和增加失业率相关,其驱动因素是消费者和投资者信心下降、股票价格降低和支出减少。 Analyzing 150 years of data, researchers found higher tariffs correlate with reduced inflation and increased unemployment, driven by falling consumer and investor confidence, lower stock prices, and reduced spending. 虽然关税可能会增加某些行业的成本,但总体需求下降似乎超过了这些影响。 While tariffs may raise costs for some industries, the overall decline in demand appears to outweigh these effects. 这些调查结果在当前贸易政策辩论中具有相关意义,突出了一种取舍:以就业增长和经济活动疲软为代价降低通货膨胀率。 The findings, relevant amid current trade policy debates, highlight a trade-off: lower inflation at the cost of weaker job growth and economic activity.