全球石油需求将持续到2050年,面临1.5摄氏度升温阈值的风险。 Global oil demand to keep rising through 2050, risking 1.5°C warming threshold.

国际能源机构的2025年世界能源展望预测,根据现行政策,全球石油和天然气需求将持续上升,至少到2050年为止,石油需求可能达到每天1.13亿桶,比2024年的水平高出13%。 The International Energy Agency’s 2025 World Energy Outlook projects global oil and gas demand will continue rising until at least 2050 under current policies, with oil demand potentially reaching 113 million barrels per day—13% above 2024 levels. 这标志着与早先预测的近期峰值相反,其驱动力是气候行动薄弱、美国政策转变偏重化石燃料和核燃料,以及数据中心和AI需求激增。 This marks a reversal from earlier forecasts of a near-term peak, driven by weak climate action, U.S. policy shifts favoring fossil fuels and nuclear, and surging demand from data centers and AI. 预计到2030年,LNG供应将增长50%,而可再生能源,特别是太阳能,将迅速扩展。 LNG supply is expected to grow 50% by 2030, while renewable energy, especially solar, expands rapidly. 预计到2035年核能力将增长至少三分之一。 Nuclear capacity is projected to grow by at least one-third by 2035. 尽管在清洁能源方面取得了进展,但到2030年,全球变暖将定期超过1.5摄氏度,目前的政策没有达到《巴黎协定》的各项目标。 Despite progress in clean energy, global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C regularly by 2030, and current policies fall short of Paris Agreement goals.