2025年,由于美国关税、出口疲软和增长停滞,日本经济很可能在Q3萎缩,在6个季度中首次下降。 Japan’s economy likely contracted in Q3 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, weak exports, and stagnant growth, first decline in six quarters.

根据路透社对经济学家的民意调查, 日本经济在7月至9月的季度可能会收缩, Japan's economy likely shrank in the July-September quarter, marking its first contraction in six quarters, according to a Reuters poll of economists. 预测中位数预测在美国关税(特别是日本进口的新税率为15%)的驱动下,年化下降2.5%,使汽车部门受到冲击。 The median forecast projected a 2.5% annualized decline, driven by U.S. tariffs—particularly a new 15% rate on Japanese imports—hurting the auto sector. 净出口拖慢了增长,而住房和库存投资的疲软又加剧了经济放缓。 Net exports dragged down growth, while weak housing and inventory investment added to the slowdown. 私人消费略有上升,但工资停滞和支出下降预示着潜在的停滞。 Private consumption rose slightly, but stagnant wages and declining spending signal potential stagnation. 官方数据应交于11月17日。 Official data is due November 17.