气候变化可能会使厄尔尼诺现象在几十年内变得更加严重和可预测,使极端天气恶化。 Climate change may make El Niño more intense and predictable within decades, worsening extreme weather.

一项新的研究预测,气候变化可能会在30至40年内将厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)从非正常周期转变为更密集和更可预测的周期,其驱动力是海洋变暖和更强大的空气-海洋相互作用。 A new study predicts that climate change could transform El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from irregular to more intense and predictable cycles within 30 to 40 years, driven by warming oceans and stronger air-sea interactions. 研究人员在高排放假设情景下使用高分辨率气候模型,发现厄尔尼诺/南方涛动可能达到临界点,导致海面温度波动更大,与北大西洋涛动和印度洋极地等其他全球气候模式更加同步。 Using high-resolution climate models under a high-emission scenario, researchers found ENSO may reach a tipping point, leading to larger sea surface temperature swings and increased synchronization with other global climate patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. 这可能会扩大降雨量的变异性,增加包括南加利福尼亚州和伊比里亚半岛在内的地区极端天气(如干旱和洪水)的风险,这一现象科学家称之为“水文气候鞭笞 ” 。 尽管更经常的周期可能会改善季节性预测,但强化的影响将对全球水、农业和基础设施管理努力构成挑战。 This could amplify rainfall variability, raising the risk of extreme weather—such as droughts and floods—in regions including Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula, a phenomenon scientists call “hydroclimate whiplash.” While more regular cycles might improve seasonal forecasts, the intensified impacts will challenge global efforts to manage water, agriculture, and infrastructure. 这些结论得到多种模型和观察的支持,强调适应战略作为根本气候模式转变的迫切需要。 The findings, supported by multiple models and observations, underscore the urgent need for adaptation strategies as fundamental climate patterns shift.