2025年,全球经济增长放缓和关税紧张了结构融资,增加了违约风险,特别是在北美和中国。 Global growth slowdown and tariffs strain structured finance in 2025, raising default risks, especially in North America and China.

预计2025年全球增长放缓和持续关税压力将给结构化金融业绩造成压力,对较弱的借款人尤其如此,《惠誉评级报告》。 Slower global growth and ongoing tariff pressures are expected to strain structured finance performance in 2025, especially for weaker borrowers, Fitch Ratings reports. 虽然由于去杠杆化和强有力的保护,大多数评分保持稳定,但在89个分部门展望中,38%的评分正在恶化,主要在北美洲。 While most ratings remain stable due to deleveraging and strong protections, 38% of 89 subsector outlooks are deteriorating, mainly in North America. 在美国和加拿大,通货膨胀和劳动力市场疲软正在增加主要和非主要人民币债券的违约,而CMBS受收入下降和成本上升的压力. In the U.S. and Canada, inflation and labor market weakness are increasing delinquencies in both prime and non-prime RMBS, with CMBS under pressure from lower revenue and higher costs. 欧洲表现出低利率和稳定就业的复原力,尽管中小企业和非借贷者仍然脆弱。 Europe shows resilience from low rates and stable employment, though SMEs and non-prime borrowers remain vulnerable. 由于关税不确定,预计拖欠CLO的情况会增加,汽车ABS欠款会随着车辆价值的下降而增加。 CLO defaults are projected to rise due to tariff uncertainty, and auto ABS arrears may increase as vehicle values fall. 澳大利亚和新西兰保持中立的观点,而中国人民币和澳新则面临经济增长疲软的压力。 Australia and New Zealand maintain neutral outlooks, while Chinese RMBS and ABS face stress from weak growth. 拉丁美洲主要呈现中性趋势,但人民币和人民币的违约和拖欠额预计会上升。 Latin America shows mostly neutral trends, but RMBS defaults and arrears are expected to rise.