民主之家的机会在2025年10月下降到62.6%,原因是投票不力和共和党获胜。 Democratic House chances fell to 62.6% in Oct. 2025 due to weak polling and Republican gains.

根据2025年10月15日的数据, 2026年重新夺回美国众议院的民主机会急剧下降, Kalshi预测市场从4月的83.8%下降到62.6%。 Democratic chances of regaining the U.S. House in 2026 have dropped sharply, falling to 62.6% on the Kalshi prediction market from 83.8% in April, according to data from October 15, 2025. 这一下降反映了在关键问题上表现不佳、通用选票数量滞后以及共和党势头不断增强。 This decline reflects weaker performance on key issues, lagging generic ballot numbers, and growing Republican momentum. 分析员指出,民主党没有能够维持特朗普第一次中期会议期间所看到的势头,而十年中期重新划分选区可能带来的GOP收益可能达到七个席位,如果最高法院的裁决影响投票权的执行,则可能更多。 Analysts note Democrats are failing to sustain the momentum seen during Trump’s first midterm, while potential GOP gains from mid-decade redistricting could add up to seven seats, possibly more if Supreme Court rulings affect voting rights enforcement. 最近的民意测验显示共和党在犯罪、移民、经济和腐败方面领先,这预示着民主党的艰难道路,特别是如果共和党在特朗普第二任任期的最后两年保持控制权的话。 Recent polling shows Republicans leading on crime, immigration, the economy, and corruption, signaling a challenging path for Democrats, especially if Republicans retain control during the final two years of Trump’s second term.