基金组织更新了2025年和2026年的全球增长预测,引述了较温和的贸易紧张和供应链复原力。 IMF upgrades global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing milder trade tensions and supply chain resilience.

国际货币基金组织将2025年全球增长预测提高到3.2%和2026年的3.1%,指出贸易关税影响比预期的要小,美国的增长前景提升到2.0%和2.1%。 The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2% and 2026 to 3.1%, citing less severe trade tariff impacts than expected, with the U.S. growth outlook upgraded to 2.0% and 2.1%. 国际货币基金组织将这种弹性归因于供应链调整、进口提前加载和有限的报复，同时指出保护主义、政策不确定性和消费者潜在成本转移带来的持续风险。 The IMF attributes the resilience to supply chain adjustments, front-loading of imports, and limited retaliation, while noting ongoing risks from protectionism, policy uncertainty, and potential cost shifts to consumers. 印度对26财政年度的增长预测提高到6.6%,而中国2025年的增长率仍为4.8%。 India’s growth forecast for FY26 is raised to 6.6%, while China’s remains at 4.8% for 2025. IMF警告说,收益是暂时的,风险依然存在,包括通货膨胀、劳动力短缺和AI驱动的市场波动。 The IMF warns that gains are temporary and risks persist, including inflation, labor shortages, and AI-driven market volatility.