由于AI需求和美国的库存积累,世贸组织将2025年的贸易增长预测提高到2.4%,但警告说2026年将放缓。 WTO raises 2025 trade growth forecast to 2.4% due to AI demand and U.S. inventory buildup, but warns of slowdown in 2026.

世界贸易组织将2025年全球贸易增长预测从0.9%,从0.9%提高到2.4%,指出对与AI有关的商品需求强劲,美国在关税之前进行库存积累,以及具有弹性的全球贸易。 The World Trade Organization raised its 2025 global trade growth forecast to 2.4% from 0.9%, citing strong demand for AI-related goods, U.S. inventory buildup ahead of tariffs, and resilient global trade. 2025年初半导体、服务器和数据设备贸易量猛增20%,美国半导体进口量增加36%。 Trade in semiconductors, servers, and data equipment surged 20% in early 2025, with U.S. semiconductor imports up 36%. 然而,由于全面关税影响和库存枯竭,预计2026年贸易增长将放慢至0.5%。 However, trade growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2026 due to full tariff impacts and depleted inventories. 世贸组织警告贸易限制升级带来的风险,并敦促合作维持稳定的全球贸易体系。 The WTO warned of risks from escalating trade restrictions and urged cooperation to maintain a stable global trade system.