保守党面临失去主要地位的风险,因为民意调查显示,英国改革领先,自由民主党在 " 先得者后得 " 制度下获得席位。 Conservative Party risks losing major status as polls show Reform UK leading and Lib Dems gaining seats under first-past-the-post system.

选举专家约翰·柯蒂斯爵士(John Curtice)说,如果目前的投票能够维持下去,自由民主党将赢得比保守党更多的议会席位,因为英国的得票最多者当选制度有利于地域集中的投票。 Elections expert Sir John Curtice said that if current polling holds, the Liberal Democrats would win more parliamentary seats than the Conservatives due to the UK’s first-past-the-post system, which benefits geographically concentrated votes. 他在保守党会议上发言时指出,鲍里斯·约翰逊领导的2019年保守党联盟基本崩溃,许多选民转向英国改革,使得保守党在布莱斯特问题上没有明确身份。 Speaking at a Conservative Party conference event, he noted the 2019 Tory coalition under Boris Johnson has largely collapsed, with many voters shifting to Reform UK, leaving the Conservatives without a clear identity on Brexit. 最近的YouGov民调显示英国改革领先29%,保守党占16%,自由民主党占15%。 Recent YouGov polling shows Reform UK leading at 29%, the Conservatives at 16%, and the Liberal Democrats at 15%. Curtice警告该党有可能失去其作为主要治理力量的地位,敦促该党把重点放在经济和卫生政策上,而不是直接挑战联合王国的移民改革,强调在寻求权力之前必须重建。 Curtice warned the party risks losing its status as a major governing force and urged it to focus on economic and health policies rather than directly challenging Reform UK on immigration, stressing the need to rebuild before seeking power.