新西兰更新了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜跟踪情况,以反映海洋变暖情况,提高预报准确性。 New Zealand updates El Niño/La Niña tracking to reflect warming oceans, improving forecast accuracy.

全球变暖导致海洋温度上升,使得传统的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜追踪方法不那么准确,促使新西兰采用新方法,将海面温度与目前的热带平均温度相比较,而不是固定的历史基线。 Rising ocean temperatures from global warming are making traditional El Niño and La Niña tracking less accurate, prompting New Zealand to adopt a new method that compares sea surface temperatures to the current tropical average instead of fixed historical baselines. 这一变化更好地反映了现实世界的影响,2024-25年夏天的情况就是如此,当时,尽管没有达到旧的门槛,但出现了类似拉尼娜现象的情况。 This change better reflects real-world impacts, as seen in the 2024–25 summer when La Niña-like conditions occurred despite not meeting old thresholds. 尽管厄尔尼诺/南方涛动仍然是复杂气候系统的一部分,但更新后的方法提高了预测的准确性。 The updated approach improves forecast accuracy, though ENSO remains one part of a complex climate system.