英国石油公司将石油峰值延迟至2030年, BP delays oil peak to 2030, boosts fossil fuel investment despite climate risks.

英国石油公司修订了其全球石油需求预测,将峰值推到2030年,原因是尽管可再生能源增长,但能效增益低于预期。 BP has revised its global oil demand forecast, pushing the peak to 2030 due to slower-than-expected energy efficiency gains, despite growth in renewables. 根据目前的轨迹假设,到2030年石油使用量将增加,到2035年稳定下来,印度等新兴经济体的石油使用量将继续上升,而发达市场则下降。 Under its Current Trajectory scenario, oil use will rise through 2030, stabilize by 2035, and remain elevated in emerging economies like India, while developed markets decline. 预计中国的石油需求将平坦。 China’s oil demand is expected to flatline. 该公司计划每年将上游石油和天然气投资提高到100亿美元,到2027年启动10个新项目,到2030年将产量扩大到每天230万至250万桶。 The company plans to boost upstream oil and gas investment to $10 billion annually, launching 10 new projects by 2027 and expanding production to 2.3–2.5 million barrels per day by 2030. 预计天然气需求将增长,特别是亚洲的天然气需求将增长,因为液化天然气的出口将增加。 Natural gas demand is projected to grow, especially in Asia, with LNG exports rising. 由交通电气化驱动的电力需求将激增,风能和太阳能将满足一半以上的新电力需求。 Electricity demand will surge, driven by transport electrification, with wind and solar meeting over half of new power needs. 然而,英国石油公司的展望表明,到2040年代初,排放量可能会超过2°C的升温限值,其订正战略包括削减清洁能源支出和在投资者压力和股价停滞的情况下从可再生能源中撤资。 However, BP’s outlook suggests emissions may exceed 2°C warming limits by the early 2040s, and its revised strategy includes cutting clean energy spending and divesting from renewables amid investor pressure and a stagnant share price.