尽管美国关税很高,但全球增长预测在2025年上升到3.2%,但风险在2026年出现。 Global growth forecast rises to 3.2% in 2025 despite high U.S. tariffs, but risks loom for 2026.

2025年全球经济增长预计为3.2%,高于6月预测的2.9%,原因是主要经济体的表现比预期要强,尽管美国关税达到19.5%,是大萧条以来最高的。 Global economic growth is projected at 3.2% in 2025, up from June’s forecast of 2.9%, due to stronger-than-expected performance in major economies despite U.S. tariffs reaching 19.5%, the highest since the Great Depression. 通过减少利润率和库存储存,支持美国、中国和欧元区的复原力,公司吸收了最初的关税影响。 Companies absorbed initial tariff impacts through reduced margins and inventory stockpiling, supporting resilience in the U.S., China, and the euro zone. 美国经济预计将在AI投资和财政支持的推动下,于2025年增长1.8%,然后在2026年放缓至1.5%。 The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2025, driven by AI investment and fiscal support, before slowing to 1.5% in 2026. 2025年中国的增长率预计为4.9%,2026年降至4.4%,而欧元区和日本的增长率预计分别为1.2%和1.1%。 China’s growth is expected at 4.9% in 2025, easing to 4.4% in 2026, while the euro zone and Japan are projected at 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. 经合组织警告说,随着库存缓冲耗尽和关税依然存在,贸易和投资增长可能会减弱,预计2026年全球增长将在持续的政策不确定性下放缓至2.9%。 The OECD warns that as inventory buffers deplete and tariffs remain, trade and investment growth could weaken, with global growth expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 amid ongoing policy uncertainty.