美国20%的关税可能使越南出口损失250亿美元,将其国内生产总值削减5%。 U.S. 20% tariffs could cost Vietnam $25 billion in exports, slashing its GDP by 5%.

根据开发计划署的估计,8月份实行的美国新关税可能使越南出口损失高达250亿美元,使其成为东南亚受影响最严重的国家。 New U.S. tariffs imposed in August could cost Vietnam up to $25 billion in exports, making it the hardest-hit Southeast Asian nation, according to a UNDP estimate. 20%的关税可能会将越南的美国出口减少近20%,预计下降幅度为19.2% — — 几乎是地区平均水平的两倍 — — 原因是严重依赖美国对鞋类和服装等商品的需求。 The 20% duties may reduce Vietnam’s U.S. exports by nearly 20%, with a projected 19.2% decline—nearly double the regional average—due to heavy reliance on U.S. demand for goods like footwear and apparel. 早期数据显示,自7月以来出口下降2%,鞋类下降5.5%。 Early data shows a 2% drop in exports from July, with footwear falling 5.5%. 关税可以将越南的GDP降低5%左右,但影响可能随时间推移而变化,其中一部分被成本吸收、市场多样化和国内支出的加强所抵消。 The tariffs could reduce Vietnam’s GDP by about 5%, though impacts may unfold over years, partially offset by cost absorption, market diversification, and stronger domestic spending. 该估计假定所有关税都传给美国消费者,而美国消费者尚未这样做,因此通货膨胀的影响有限。 The estimate assumes all tariffs are passed to U.S. consumers, which has not yet occurred, keeping inflation effects limited. 它排除了对转运货物征收40%的潜在关税和消费电子产品的豁免,这些产品占出口的28%——即使如此,损失也可能达到180亿美元。 It excludes potential 40% tariffs on transshipped goods and exemptions for consumer electronics, which make up 28% of exports—yet even with those, losses could reach $18 billion. 越南财政部和工业部没有做出评论。 Vietnam’s finance and industry ministries have not commented.