印度拟议削减GST, 可能会造成1.2万亿卢比的收入成本, 使公共支出、基础设施及银行利润面临风险。 Proposed GST cuts in India may cost Rs 1.2 trillion in revenue, risking public spending, infrastructure, and bank profits.

系统卫星研究报告警告说,拟议在印度削减GST可能会造成近1.2万亿卢比的收入损失,远远超过政府估计的480亿卢比,从而可能限制公共支出和基础设施投资。 A Systematix Research report warns that proposed GST cuts in India could cause a revenue loss of nearly Rs 1.2 trillion, far exceeding the government’s Rs 480 billion estimate, potentially limiting public spending and infrastructure investment. 这可能减少对项目贷款的需求并给银行部门造成压力。 This could reduce demand for project loans and strain the banking sector. 印度出口商面临高达50%的合并关税,这有风险贸易竞争力和降低信贷需求。 Indian exporters face combined tariffs of up to 50%, risking trade competitiveness and lower credit demand. 2025年2月至6月,RBI的100个基点利率削减对银行净利率产生了压力,进一步削减将构成持续风险。 RBI’s 100 basis point rate cuts from February to June 2025 have pressured bank net interest margins, with further reductions posing ongoing risks. 中小型和微型企业部门出现现金流动紧张的迹象,可能影响偿还贷款和银行盈利。 The MSME sector shows signs of cash flow stress, which may affect loan repayments and bank profitability. 即将向预期信用损失核算框架的转变也可能增加初始成本,尽管没有正式推出《备抵倡议》的日期。 An upcoming shift to an Expected Credit Loss accounting framework may also add initial costs, despite no official rollout date from the RBI.