2024-25年,由于出口增加,全球小麦库存略有上升,但供应紧张使市场脆弱。 Global wheat stocks rose slightly in 2024-25 due to higher exports, but tight supplies keep markets vulnerable.

美国农业部9月份的报告将2024-25年的全球小麦供应量增加了900万吨,这主要是由于主要出口国的产量较高,而消费则增加了500万吨,导致到2026年5月最终库存增加400万吨。 The USDA’s September report raised global wheat supply for 2024-25 by 9 million tonnes, mainly due to higher output in major exporters, while consumption rose by 5 million tonnes, leading to a 4 million-tonne increase in ending stocks by May 2026. 库存与使用比率略有上升,达到历史紧凑水平,仍接近2007-08年以来的最低水平,表明市场持续脆弱。 The stocks-to-use ratio rose slightly to a historically tight level, still near the lowest since 2007-08, indicating ongoing market vulnerability. 全球小麦价格下降,澳大利亚的出口招标减弱,因为出口商注重现有销售,国内买家采取谨慎战略。 Global wheat prices have declined, with Australian export bids weakening as exporters focus on existing sales and domestic buyers adopt cautious strategies. 美国和阿根廷的生产预测保持不变,但澳大利亚的产量提高到3 450万吨。 The U.S. and Argentina’s production forecasts were unchanged, but Australia’s was raised to 34.5 million tonnes. 随着北半球供应量的减少,南半球的出口,特别是来自澳大利亚的出口预计将发挥越来越大的作用,澳大利亚的销售时间和数量可能影响到全球价格。 As northern hemisphere supplies dwindle, southern hemisphere exports, particularly from Australia, are expected to play a growing role, with the timing and volume of Australian sales likely to influence global prices.