没有新的投资,全球石油产量在一年内可能会下降35%以上,尽管预计到十年结束时需求将达到高峰。 Global oil output could drop over 35% in a year without new investments, despite projected demand peak by decade’s end.

国际能源机构警告说,由于依赖页岩和深海近海油田,全球石油和天然气生产面临加速下降速度,需要持续投资以维持目前的产出水平。 The International Energy Agency warns that global oil and gas production faces accelerating decline rates, driven by reliance on shale and deep offshore fields, requiring sustained investment to maintain current output levels. 没有新项目,供应量可能会大幅下降,石油产量一年可能下降35%以上。 Without new projects, supply could drop significantly, with oil output potentially falling by over 35% in a year. 尽管预计到本十年结束时石油需求将达到高峰,但新的勘探和开发——特别是在美洲——对于抵消不断下降的油田至关重要。 Despite a projected peak in oil demand by the end of the decade, new exploration and development—especially in the Americas—are critical to offset declining fields. 与此同时,汇丰银行预测,由于欧佩克+放松生产削减和产出增加,2025-2026年石油盈余将不断增加,从而增加了价格下降的风险。 Meanwhile, HSBC forecasts growing oil surpluses in 2025–2026 due to OPEC+ easing production cuts and rising output, raising risks of price declines. 欧洲摆脱俄罗斯能源等政治转变也在加剧市场波动,全球供应链和需求模式正在改变。 Political shifts, such as Europe’s move away from Russian energy, are also increasing market volatility, with supply chains and demand patterns reshaping globally.