Goldman Sachs警告关税可能会将美国推向经济衰退, Goldman Sachs warns tariffs could push U.S. into recession, raising probability to 35%.

Goldman Sachs警告说,美国新的关税可能会将经济推向衰退,使明年的衰退概率提高到35%。 Goldman Sachs warns that new U.S. tariffs could push the economy towards a recession, raising the recession probability to 35% within the next year. 银行预测平均关税将增加15%,导致通货膨胀率(3.5%)和失业率(4.5%)上升,同时将国内生产总值增长率降至1%。 The bank predicts a 15% increase in average tariffs, leading to higher inflation (3.5%) and unemployment (4.5%), while cutting GDP growth to 1%. 这些变化反映了贸易紧张加剧以及消费者和商业情绪减弱。 These changes reflect increased trade tensions and weaker consumer and business sentiment.